Wireless predictions for 2010

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2010 is going to be a great year for the wireless industry.  We have such a fast moving business and my belief is that 2010 will be an exciting time for all of us!

Here are some predictions for 2010.  I am going with my gut here based on what we have heard and what we know.  Also some will make you want to call me Captain Obvious.   If I hit on all of them, you can send your congratulatory e-mails to chrisstalker@gmail.com :)



1. The iphone will launch on Verizon Wireless and they will sell MILLIONS in a very short amount of time.  People will jump from AT&T for the network.   Verizon supposedly passed on the iphone at launch, but they wont pass again.  AT&T will have a negative quarter for the first time since I can remember. Verizon will make commercials about how much they suck. (UPDATE: Wow, AT&T is still holding on.  I still think that Verizon will get the 4th generation device somehow)

2. The Palm Pre and Pixie will launch on Verizon Wireless.  They will not sell like the iphone, but they will sell very well.  Palm will report positive earnings for the first time in a while.   Bono will jump for joy (UPDATE: Geez, can Verizon promote this thing?)

3. The big 4 will become the big 3. My guess is that Sprint and T-Mobile will come together.  T-Mobile would be the buyer as they have the fat Deutsch Telekom wallet.  There will be your normal technology issues with CDMA, Iden, and GSM but they will figure it out in the end.  My calculations tell me this would make them the #3 carrier in the US with about 81.3 million subscribers ,but would easily position them to take #2 .  AT&T is estimated at 81.6 million but I feel they will lose some subs to Verizon in '10 (see #1).  Verizon is estimated  89 million subscribers after their Q3 earnings report.

4.  Tier B carrier consolidation.  These regional guys are in a cat fight right now.  One of the cats have to win.  A Metro PCS and Cricket Wireless merger seems likely.  Metro PCS attempted to purchase Cricket Wireless once before and they were rejected.   With the new financial climate, increasing competition from T-Mobile ,and a couple of little guys (like Page Plus), a shake up must occur. Suddenly the world will be confused now that literally EVERY SINGLE corner has a MetroCricket PCS dealer.

5.  Palm will launch a device that will blow you away.  I could imagine what I would want to see in a new webOS device (bigger screen, thinner, better keyboard, even faster processor), but im sure Palm is steady at work on the next big one.  Looking forward to it.

6.  Blackberry gets sexier.  I'm not talking devices here, I'm talking software.  Blackberry's have always been known to be the corporate workhorse and I have sold a ton to very happy clients,but the OS is getting old.  All around us there are sexy operating systems.... Android, Apple, webOS.  Blackberry knows it needs to add some appeal.  I believe you will see it in 2010 even if its just a consumer driven device.  Population in US goes up because its so sexy.

7. Another smart phone handset manufacturer makes a splash. When I say another, I mean someone besides Apple, Blackberry Palm, or HTC.  These seem to be the big smartphone makers in the US right now.  Samsung has a shot and they are launching their new operating system... Bada.  Also LG has not surprised us in a while. Nokia has a shot here.  In Europe they are and always have been HOT, but in the US they have been nothing spectacular.

8.  4G takes center stage.  Clear (Clearwire) has already launched in some markets (including Philadelphia where I live) and they seem to be doing OK, just OK.  Like most new innovative products there is a buzz at the start.  I wonder whats going to happen to them when carriers like Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile launch LTE and HSDPA+ with download speeds up to 21Mbps.  Thats fast and they can market it better with their fatter wallets.  It should be a nice fight the same it was when 3G launched. In Clears defense , they do have some major distribution through Sprint and Comcast.

9. Product Rep jobs start sprouting up more and more.  Carriers rely on the handsets and products more and more.  The carriers are the stage, but the phones are the stars.  If you get it right, people line up at your door ready to upgrade to the latest and greatest...even if it means full price because they are not eligible for an upgrade.  Carriers and equipment manufacturers know that they need talented people to push their products in the direct and indirect space.  Someone who has a lot of know how can really make a difference by training and making themselves known as a knowledgeable source.

I will add some more as I come up with them and we will see how many come true. If there is anything I could predict its that the wireless business in 2010 will be exciting and show more growth.

CS

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